A View With a Room

The Week Ahead

November 28, 2016

Count us as skeptics on the lift to growth from prospective US tax cuts or defence and infrastructure spending increases. That’s not because they never work, but because with a lean 4.9% jobless rate, we just don’t see the room to accelerate much beyond a 2% average pace in 2017/18 before the additional demand will push American inflation rather than output. But there’s some tricky and uncertain economics behind that assessment, on which the experts can and do disagree.

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