A Blip

The Week Ahead

June 5, 2017

The trade-weighted US dollar is roughly where it was on November 7th, 2016, inflation expectations are only 10 basis points higher than they were before the elections, the 2017 consensus forecast for US GDP was 2.1%, today the consensus is 2.2%. And after its post-election meteoric ascent, the 10-year rate is only 40 basis points higher than it was in early November—of which most can be attributed to the push factor from the Fed’s tightening trajectory—which, in turn, would have been exactly the same if Hillary was running the show.

Granted the S&P 500 is up by 13% since the election—seemingly immune to the reversal of the Trump trend. One explanation here is that markets learned to normalize the abnormal, and what in the past would have spooked investors, today is met with a yawn. That’s a scary thought. We don’t buy that argument. The reason is that the S&P 500 is not the only market that is up. The MSCI global index is up by just over 13%, the Nikkei by close to 15% and the DAX by 20%. So something else is happening here.

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Vineyards, vintages and vistas

Take a British Columbia wine tour this summer

June 1, 2017

There’s no time like summertime in beautiful British Columbia to explore the wealth of wineries that our magnificent part of the world has to offer. And, with so many wine adventures waiting right outside our back door, there is no excuse not to head out and explore some of Canada’s finest wine tasting experiences.

Whether you opt to take a guided tour or choose to explore on your own, you’ll soon discover why such authoritative sources as Frommer’s, Sherman’s Travel and The New York Times have all raved about the British Columbia wine experience.

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U.S. Equity Markets Are Trading Higher Today

Market Beat

May 29, 2017

U.S. equity markets are trading higher today. OPEC announced that the member nations have agreed on a production cut extension for nine months. In addition non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, are expected to participate with the proposed plan. Oil prices, however, are lower as much of this news was anticipated and was the main reason for the rally off of the recent US$45/barrel area.

South of the border, jobless claims came in at 234,000 vs. an expectation of 238,000. This continues the trend of the claims number coming in below 300,000 which is an indication of a healthy labor market. In addition, U.S. international trade in goods data showed that the goods deficit widened to -US$67.6 billion, which was larger than expected. This was the result of export declines for industrial supplies and consumer goods and an import jump for cars.

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